Example forecast specification.
The structure of a transition forecast: defined proposition, frozen evidence cutoff, declared baselines, objective resolution rule.
Forecast specification
The fields that define this proposition
These fields show the public shape of a resolvable question. Program-specific context and internal analysis are not part of this example.
An example baseline format. The verification protocol is published on the Verification Ledger.
nc-39c02226c4ad How to verify Recorded with the registration and evaluated alongside the forecast
The outcome is checked against a public source and a pre-stated rule
CMS publishes a final national coverage determination that expands access beyond the current restricted coverage.
Evidence boundary
Public evidence, fixed at cutoff
A real brief records the relevant public evidence available at the declared cutoff. Later evidence belongs to a new registration; customer context stays within the applicable program.
What stays private
The example is deliberately incomplete
A production program may include customer decision context and additional analysis. Those details are not needed to understand the public format and are not shown here.
Every forecast we register
What comes with the specification
Scoring means nothing unless the forecast is sealed off from hindsight and from your internal context. Four things hold that line.
What it's for
Built to arrive before a date you already have.
A brief is registered against a decision date you bring — a coverage review, a launch gate, an evidence strategy window. The probability and its frozen evidence state go on the record ahead of that date, giving your team a dated basis to work from while the authority's process is still open.
Whether earlier notice changes the decision is itself under test, not an established result. See Programs.