NC // Decision Intelligence powered by Claim Forensics

Know when a thesis depends on claims that are still unstable.

Evidence often stabilizes before institutions formally act. We identify the evidence patterns that materially change the read—so you can de-risk while the window is still open. 100–400 day early warning for clinical and regulatory events.

For diligence teams, BD, and investors: know when a disputed claim your thesis depends on has stabilized—or remains volatile enough to threaten the investment case. Delivered as a 1-page decision brief.

One Claim Thesis Dependency
One Decision BD / Investment
Window Status Stable / Unstable

01 // THE PROBLEM

Thesis risk hides in unstable claims.

Thesis risk hides in unstable claims. By identifying specific stability signals, we identify when a claim your thesis depends on has reached a stable state—and whether the evidence record is still moving.

We show what holds, what is contested, and what evidence shifts would change the call.

When this matters:

  • PDUFA date alpha (30-60d warning)
  • Clinical trial failure prediction
  • Pre-acquisition asset scrutiny
  • Biotech portfolio positioning
  • PE due diligence on pharma services
  • Hedge fund thesis validation
  • Clinical trial continuation decisions

02 // THE OUTPUT

A diligence brief your team can forward to investment committee.

Each brief answers: Can this claim still be challenged, and how much time do we have?

Window status (Open / Narrowing / Closing), what holds, what is under stress, what would reverse the read, and a suggested action envelope for your diligence strategy.

1-Page Decision Brief For BD / Investors / Diligence
  • Window Status: Open / Narrowing / Closing
  • What Changed: Trajectory of evidence shifts
  • What Holds: Stable evidence supporting the read
  • What Is Under Stress: Contested evidence points
  • What Would Reverse: Reversal conditions
Trust Boundary

We measure the decision window. We do not predict market movements or guarantee investment returns.

Start

Have a thesis that depends on a disputed claim?

Send the claim, the decision date, and your thesis question. We respond within one business day with fit, limits, and whether the window to de-risk is still open.

Requests require a verified institutional email address and are subject to current measurement scope.

Today's Read finerenone-cardiorenal
Hardening
Signal 0.38 / Gate 0.65
Phase 1b pending review. Other lanes: dossier-build.

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